6 Key Pieces of Economic Data You Should Know About
A note from Emma Hussey, your new favorite economic policy staffer
I. Your cup of coffee is getting more expensive
Coffee prices have skyrocketed in recent years and months. The price of 1 pound of coffee is up $0.91 (13%) since January, $1.94 (33%) from one year ago, and $3.88 (100%) from pre-pandemic. . According to a new article from the Financial Times, the chair of Lavazza Group blamed hedge funds and financial speculators for causing “80 per cent” of the coffee price surge that drove futures to record highs in January. He argued that these “big investment funds” exploited the relatively small coffee futures market to create massive price swings, forcing coffee companies like Lavazza to spend nearly three times more money just to buy the same amount of coffee beans. While that is likely one factor that has led to the increase in coffee prices since January, there is no doubt that Trump’s tariffs have been another, and Trump’s new plans to impose tariffs on Brazil—the global leader in coffee production—will only drive coffee prices even higher.
II. The Federal Reserve suggests Trump’s mass deportation policies threaten economic growth
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a study on Tuesday that found that the drastic drop in immigrants across the southern border and increased deportation efforts could subtract around 0.8 percentage point from GDP in 2025. Under a “mass deportation” scenario, which they define as removing 1 million immigrants per year by the end of 2027, annual GDP growth would be nearly 0.9 percentage point lower by the end of 2025 and 1.5 percentage points lower by the end of 2027.
III. Accounting experts conclude tariffs are lowering business profit margins – and companies are planning “significant” price increases
KPMG published new data showing that more than half of U.S. companies (57%) reported declining gross margins as a direct result of President Trump’s tariffs. International sales are being severely impacted, with 83% of companies reporting reduced sales in China due to retaliatory tariffs and nearly a third experiencing 16-25% drops in foreign sales overall. Companies are responding by planning significant price increases, with 83% expecting to raise prices in the next six months.
IV. BLS Data Shows Import Prices Rising Faster than the White House Acknowledges
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that import prices are rising faster than the White House acknowledges – with prices on all imports excluding volatile food and fuel categories having increased in the previous two months at a higher rate than at any time over the past year. White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Stephen Miran compared the likelihood of President Trump’s tariffs causing price increases to extremely rare events like “pandemics or meteors.” Miran points to a new White House report that showed that imported goods prices actually fell between December and May despite tariff fears. However, the report uses unconventional calculations. Import price measures calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics present a different picture than the White House’s analysis.
V. Federal Reserve express concerns that companies are using tariffs as an excuse to raise prices, even if they are not impacted
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from their June meeting revealed that committee participants expressed concerns that companies may exploit tariffs as justification for raising prices beyond what the trade policies would actually warrant. This acknowledgement echoes comments from Fed President Barkin, who has warned about businesses using tariffs as cover for broader price increases. At a roundtable with business leaders in North Carolina, Barkin asked if their companies are raising prices because of the impact of tariffs on their costs or as “air cover to raise prices.” One CEO responded: “It’s both. And I feel a little guilty saying that.” Senator Warren has written to the Federal Trade Commission urging an investigation into potential price gouging related to tariffs.
VI. Americans withdraw from job market; Black unemployment surging
Continuing jobless claims keep edging higher
While initial jobless claims ticked down again during the week ending in July 5. Continuing jobless claims continued on its upward trajectory at levels not seen since 2021, rising to 1.97 million. Rising continuing jobless claims mean that those who are unemployed are staying unemployed for longer, suggesting that the job market is becoming increasingly stagnant.
June Jobs Report is weaker than headlines suggest
Last week’s Jobs Report confirms a steady labor market on the surface, but it’s clear Donald Trump’s policies continue to chip away at the progress we’ve made over the past few years. Here are a few stats to highlight from June:
Labor force participation declined as more Americans withdrew from the job market entirely, suggesting growing discouragement among potential workers who have stopped actively seeking employment. The rate for 25-54 year olds ticked up last month, but is down 0.2 percentage points since this time last year.
The manufacturing sector shed jobs for another month.
Black unemployment surged by 0.8 percentage points in a single month, reaching its highest level since January 2022.